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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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