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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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