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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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