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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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