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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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