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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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