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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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