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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 15 March 18
BHEL COMMISSIONS 600 MW THERMAL POWER PLANT FOR APGENCO IN ANDHRA PRADESH
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) has successfully commissioned a 600 MW coal-based thermal power plant in the state of Andhra Pradesh.
...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUEK GROUP SECURES $1.055BN 5-YEAR SYNDICATED PRE-EXPORT FINANCE FACILITY
SUEK Group signed a $1.055bn syndicated pre-export loan agreement. The facility with five years duration is secured against the Group’s expor ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
COAL PRICES UP SAYS MINERALS COUNCIL - IAN KIRKWOOD,THE HERALD
NSW thermal coal exports were at near-record levels last year but prices were up, the Minerals Council of NSW has said after appraising annual stat ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
NEW COAL PRICE FORMULA DOESN'T APPLY RETROACTIVELY: OFFICIAL - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has decided to change the implementation period of the new discounted price formula for coal sold to the ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
Interest in second hand tonnage remains firm with buyers in the dry bulk sector looking to benefit from rising freight rates that are eventually ex ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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