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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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