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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 12 March 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FINDS ITS FOOTING - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Some relief for owners as the week closed out with the market finding a floor in the East. Rates on the key West Australia/China run loo ...
Monday, 12 March 18
COAL OUTPUT FROM PRIVATE MINERS UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MEDIUM TERM: ICRA
Coal output levels from private commercial miners are unlikely to go up considerably in the medium to short term, given the issues related to land ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS
As per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to import coal from the source of their choi ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
THE 'RENOS' - COURT OF APPEAL CLARIFIES CTL CALCULATION AND RIGHT OF ABANDONMENT - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the matter of the “RENOS”, Mr Justice Knowles addressed a number of issues, at first instance, regarding t ...
Friday, 09 March 18
THE WORLD CANNOT KEEP IGNORING THE ASIAN COAL STORY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
There were significant changes in the global energy system in 2017, including the growth in electric vehicles, the rise of renewables and the conti ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
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