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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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