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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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