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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- The University of Queensland
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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