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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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