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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
...
Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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