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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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