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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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