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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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