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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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