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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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