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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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