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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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