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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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