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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
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