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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 March 18
WHEN AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEETS AN IMMOVABLE OBJECT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negotiable bills of lading are fundamental to trade. As documents of title, they are essential to the sale and carriage o ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The comparably small upside Handysize asset values have noted compared to other sizes since the historical lows of the dry bulk market in combinati ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
FOREIGN INVESTORS ALLOWED TO BID FOR BIG MINING CONCESSIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has allowed foreign investors to bid for mining concessions with a total area of more than 500 hectares, while smaller areas will be ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
LNG VESSELS HAVE EMERGED AS THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT FOR THE WATERWAY - GERRY LATHROP
The day was July 25th 2016, a partly cloudy day on the Panama canal, and to most people a rather innocuous day without any real merit, however in s ...
Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
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Showing 1786 to 1790 news of total 6871 |
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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