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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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