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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 March 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FINDS ITS FOOTING - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Some relief for owners as the week closed out with the market finding a floor in the East. Rates on the key West Australia/China run loo ...
Monday, 12 March 18
COAL OUTPUT FROM PRIVATE MINERS UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MEDIUM TERM: ICRA
Coal output levels from private commercial miners are unlikely to go up considerably in the medium to short term, given the issues related to land ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS
As per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to import coal from the source of their choi ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
THE 'RENOS' - COURT OF APPEAL CLARIFIES CTL CALCULATION AND RIGHT OF ABANDONMENT - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the matter of the “RENOS”, Mr Justice Knowles addressed a number of issues, at first instance, regarding t ...
Friday, 09 March 18
THE WORLD CANNOT KEEP IGNORING THE ASIAN COAL STORY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
There were significant changes in the global energy system in 2017, including the growth in electric vehicles, the rise of renewables and the conti ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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