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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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