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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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