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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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