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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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