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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
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Showing 1741 to 1745 news of total 6871 |
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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