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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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