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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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Showing 1746 to 1750 news of total 6871 |
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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