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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
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Showing 1691 to 1695 news of total 6871 |
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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