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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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