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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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