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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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