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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
 We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker fleet development and future outlook. So in this column, we will just outline a few points delivered during the presentation.
On the crude sector, a very anemic supply growth in 2014 helped the market enjoy a very good year in 2015 as the demand for crude carriers surpassed the fleet growth. Consequentially, the improved market led to renewed appetite for new buildings and the orders peaked in 2015. The ships ordered then were for delivery in 2016-2018, so, as demolition bottomed in 2015 and 2016, during those years the fleet grew at levels of five to six percent. Such increased tanker supply has not been matched by the respective demand, so the earnings have remained suppressed. Nevertheless, demolition – supported also by upcoming regulations, is peaking to unprecedented levels at least since 2012 leading to marginal fleet growth despite deliveries. Furthermore, and whilst the average age of the tankers being sold for scrap is around 19years old and only one percent of the crude fleet is over 20years old, eleven percent of the current fleet will be over 20years old by 2020 meaning there are still good grounds for demolition to continue.
The product market looks even more promising. The current orderbook is marginally at ten percent of the fleet and the average age of ships being scrapped is around 22 years. Furthermore, six percent of the product tanker fleet is still over 20 years old and by 2020 ten percent of the fleet will be over 20 years old. The fleet grew sharply in 2013 and 2015 but for the last three years the growth is subdued. In a very plausible scenario for 2018, demand growth is expected to surpass supply growth for the first time since 2015.
What is interesting is that the correlation between earnings and contracting turned negative in 2017. Few but wise and counter-cyclical investors find the stomach to order tanker new buildings when the market is deteriorating. One reason is the attractive prices in all tanker sub-segments; VLCCs at or below $80m, Aframax tankers hovering just over 40 million and MR Tankers in the very low 30s were well below their historical average making them very attractive. The lack of orders during 2016 led the shipbuilders to reduce their pricing and the poor market helped the buyers squeeze them further to the lowest possible contract prices. Pricing, combined with compliance to the upcoming regulations made the new buildings more attractive solutions for a shipowner who wanted to renew or expand his fleet.
Is a shipowner prepared to pay more for a tanker today than six months ago? Definitely NO for an older vessel and marginally YES for a modern ship. Should one be worried about today's tanker orderbook? Yes one should, but one should also keep the fact that the tonnage that can possibly exit the market the next few years is very close to today's orderbook. Have a good one.
lack of activity in the region. Moreover China’s recently imposed 25% tariff on US soybean imports could generate a growth in demand for regional palm oil, as CPO can be used as an alternative in certain circumstances.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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