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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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