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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 12 March 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FINDS ITS FOOTING - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Some relief for owners as the week closed out with the market finding a floor in the East. Rates on the key West Australia/China run loo ...
Monday, 12 March 18
COAL OUTPUT FROM PRIVATE MINERS UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MEDIUM TERM: ICRA
Coal output levels from private commercial miners are unlikely to go up considerably in the medium to short term, given the issues related to land ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS
As per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to import coal from the source of their choi ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
THE 'RENOS' - COURT OF APPEAL CLARIFIES CTL CALCULATION AND RIGHT OF ABANDONMENT - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the matter of the “RENOS”, Mr Justice Knowles addressed a number of issues, at first instance, regarding t ...
Friday, 09 March 18
THE WORLD CANNOT KEEP IGNORING THE ASIAN COAL STORY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
There were significant changes in the global energy system in 2017, including the growth in electric vehicles, the rise of renewables and the conti ...
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Showing 1776 to 1780 news of total 6871 |
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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