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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
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Showing 1721 to 1725 news of total 6871 |
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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