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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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