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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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