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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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