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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
TRAFIGURA GROUP PTE LTD SIGNS RECORD US$5.725 BILLION EUROPEAN MULTICURRENCY SYNDICATED REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES AND JPY72.64 BILLION DENOMINATED THREE YEAR TERM LOAN
Press Release: Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. (“Trafigura” or the “Company”), a market leader in the global commodities industry, ...
Monday, 19 March 18
PANAMAX: DESPITE FEWER REPORTED PERIOD TRADES THIS WEEK, RATE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED SOLID - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
There were finally reports of increased Brazil activity, but still largely unconfirmed. Vale reportedly took six ships Thursday for 5 Ap ...
Friday, 16 March 18
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.9 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.8 million short tons ...
Friday, 16 March 18
INDONESIA COAL PRICE CAP POSES LIMITED RISKS TO PRODUCERS : FITCH
Indonesia’s cap on the benchmark price of coal sold to the domestic electricity sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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