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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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