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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 March 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW $13K TO S. CHINA AND HIGH $13K TO NORTH IN CHINA
Supramax
More activity from USG , front hauls to Far East have settled around $25000, and to Cont around $20000. Stable gain again in Black Sea w ...
Thursday, 15 March 18
BHEL COMMISSIONS 600 MW THERMAL POWER PLANT FOR APGENCO IN ANDHRA PRADESH
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) has successfully commissioned a 600 MW coal-based thermal power plant in the state of Andhra Pradesh.
...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUEK GROUP SECURES $1.055BN 5-YEAR SYNDICATED PRE-EXPORT FINANCE FACILITY
SUEK Group signed a $1.055bn syndicated pre-export loan agreement. The facility with five years duration is secured against the Group’s expor ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
COAL PRICES UP SAYS MINERALS COUNCIL - IAN KIRKWOOD,THE HERALD
NSW thermal coal exports were at near-record levels last year but prices were up, the Minerals Council of NSW has said after appraising annual stat ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
NEW COAL PRICE FORMULA DOESN'T APPLY RETROACTIVELY: OFFICIAL - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has decided to change the implementation period of the new discounted price formula for coal sold to the ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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