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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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