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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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