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Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
 Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018”
April 2017- “Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade”
July 2017 - “The pickup in global growth anticipated in the April World Economic Outlook remains on track...”
October 2017 - “The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise by 3.8 percent in 2018, compared to 3.7 percent in 2017 [emerging countries]”
So, what has happened in 2017 that has been the drive of the recovery? Is it sustainable? According to a special report by the Economist, in the first half of 2017 the volume of the emerging-market exports increased by 4.6% compared to a year earlier, the fastest growth since 2011; not only this, during the same period the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) all grew simultaneously for the first time in three years and for the first time since 2009, twenty one out of twenty four emerging countries have reported higher - than the previous quarter - quarterly GDP figures.
After exceeding expectations in 2017, the global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3% growth rate in 2018. China, the biggest contributor and the barometer of the shipping indexes, is expected to grow a bit slower compared to 2017, leaving India as the fastest-growing large economy contributing a growth of 7.8% in the world's GDP. The other countries of the area are also expected to hit growth in excess of 6%. The developed countries will also contribute since the momentum in mature economies increased during 2017 and it is expected to continue growing by a healthy 2.1% in 2018 - compared to the 1.8% 5-year average.
On the ship supply side, the dry bulk fleet (>20,000dwt) just exceeded ten thousand vessels (for the record, ten years ago the fleet was less than seven thousand ships); Whilst 430 vessels were delivered in 2017 the fleet increased by 226 vessels (2.3% fleet growth) as more than 200 bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2018 it is projected that the shipbuilders will deliver another four hundred forty vessels; so, if we can assume at least the same demolition activity with 2017 then the fleet growth will increase by about the same number of ships – less if you count slippage and non-reported cancellations. In absolute numbers the orderbook is also smaller compared to last year by about one hundred vessels. This means that despite all the 2017 placed orders, the orderbook was not replenished. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is also at low levels not seen for many years, 9% for Handysize up to Kamsarmax size and 10% for Capes. So, with sustainable global economic growth, this could mean good news for shipowners.
So, after disappointing global growth over the past few years, this recent pickup combined with the relatively subdued fleet growth provides an ideal window of opportunity for the shipping industry to enjoy good returns.
Happy New Year to all and let’s hope to mark 2018 in our happy memories!
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 15 January 18
QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 210.8 MT OF COAL IN 2017, DOWN 5% YOY QUEENSLAND RESOURCES COUNCIL
Queensland's coal exports over the 12 months reached 210.8 mt which is down 10 mt or 5 per cent from the previous year’s record of 220.8 ...
Thursday, 11 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS FIXING AT AROUND $10K - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG rates improved both for backhaul and fronthaul, Ultras from USG to Japan receiving around $26k daily while supras 1-2k less for same ...
Tuesday, 09 January 18
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL REFERENCE PRICE UP IN JANUARY
COALspot.com: the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) rose 1.60 per cent in January 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Friday, 05 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 32.4% PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.5 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 January 18
COAL DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT TO 2022, RESULTING IN A DECADE OF STAGNATION - IEA
Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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