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Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
 Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018”
April 2017- “Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade”
July 2017 - “The pickup in global growth anticipated in the April World Economic Outlook remains on track...”
October 2017 - “The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise by 3.8 percent in 2018, compared to 3.7 percent in 2017 [emerging countries]”
So, what has happened in 2017 that has been the drive of the recovery? Is it sustainable? According to a special report by the Economist, in the first half of 2017 the volume of the emerging-market exports increased by 4.6% compared to a year earlier, the fastest growth since 2011; not only this, during the same period the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) all grew simultaneously for the first time in three years and for the first time since 2009, twenty one out of twenty four emerging countries have reported higher - than the previous quarter - quarterly GDP figures.
After exceeding expectations in 2017, the global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3% growth rate in 2018. China, the biggest contributor and the barometer of the shipping indexes, is expected to grow a bit slower compared to 2017, leaving India as the fastest-growing large economy contributing a growth of 7.8% in the world's GDP. The other countries of the area are also expected to hit growth in excess of 6%. The developed countries will also contribute since the momentum in mature economies increased during 2017 and it is expected to continue growing by a healthy 2.1% in 2018 - compared to the 1.8% 5-year average.
On the ship supply side, the dry bulk fleet (>20,000dwt) just exceeded ten thousand vessels (for the record, ten years ago the fleet was less than seven thousand ships); Whilst 430 vessels were delivered in 2017 the fleet increased by 226 vessels (2.3% fleet growth) as more than 200 bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2018 it is projected that the shipbuilders will deliver another four hundred forty vessels; so, if we can assume at least the same demolition activity with 2017 then the fleet growth will increase by about the same number of ships – less if you count slippage and non-reported cancellations. In absolute numbers the orderbook is also smaller compared to last year by about one hundred vessels. This means that despite all the 2017 placed orders, the orderbook was not replenished. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is also at low levels not seen for many years, 9% for Handysize up to Kamsarmax size and 10% for Capes. So, with sustainable global economic growth, this could mean good news for shipowners.
So, after disappointing global growth over the past few years, this recent pickup combined with the relatively subdued fleet growth provides an ideal window of opportunity for the shipping industry to enjoy good returns.
Happy New Year to all and let’s hope to mark 2018 in our happy memories!
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 January 18
QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 210.8 MT OF COAL IN 2017, DOWN 5% YOY QUEENSLAND RESOURCES COUNCIL
Queensland's coal exports over the 12 months reached 210.8 mt which is down 10 mt or 5 per cent from the previous year’s record of 220.8 ...
Thursday, 11 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS FIXING AT AROUND $10K - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG rates improved both for backhaul and fronthaul, Ultras from USG to Japan receiving around $26k daily while supras 1-2k less for same ...
Tuesday, 09 January 18
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL REFERENCE PRICE UP IN JANUARY
COALspot.com: the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) rose 1.60 per cent in January 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Friday, 05 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 32.4% PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.5 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 January 18
COAL DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT TO 2022, RESULTING IN A DECADE OF STAGNATION - IEA
Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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