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Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
 Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018”
April 2017- “Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade”
July 2017 - “The pickup in global growth anticipated in the April World Economic Outlook remains on track...”
October 2017 - “The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise by 3.8 percent in 2018, compared to 3.7 percent in 2017 [emerging countries]”
So, what has happened in 2017 that has been the drive of the recovery? Is it sustainable? According to a special report by the Economist, in the first half of 2017 the volume of the emerging-market exports increased by 4.6% compared to a year earlier, the fastest growth since 2011; not only this, during the same period the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) all grew simultaneously for the first time in three years and for the first time since 2009, twenty one out of twenty four emerging countries have reported higher - than the previous quarter - quarterly GDP figures.
After exceeding expectations in 2017, the global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3% growth rate in 2018. China, the biggest contributor and the barometer of the shipping indexes, is expected to grow a bit slower compared to 2017, leaving India as the fastest-growing large economy contributing a growth of 7.8% in the world's GDP. The other countries of the area are also expected to hit growth in excess of 6%. The developed countries will also contribute since the momentum in mature economies increased during 2017 and it is expected to continue growing by a healthy 2.1% in 2018 - compared to the 1.8% 5-year average.
On the ship supply side, the dry bulk fleet (>20,000dwt) just exceeded ten thousand vessels (for the record, ten years ago the fleet was less than seven thousand ships); Whilst 430 vessels were delivered in 2017 the fleet increased by 226 vessels (2.3% fleet growth) as more than 200 bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2018 it is projected that the shipbuilders will deliver another four hundred forty vessels; so, if we can assume at least the same demolition activity with 2017 then the fleet growth will increase by about the same number of ships – less if you count slippage and non-reported cancellations. In absolute numbers the orderbook is also smaller compared to last year by about one hundred vessels. This means that despite all the 2017 placed orders, the orderbook was not replenished. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is also at low levels not seen for many years, 9% for Handysize up to Kamsarmax size and 10% for Capes. So, with sustainable global economic growth, this could mean good news for shipowners.
So, after disappointing global growth over the past few years, this recent pickup combined with the relatively subdued fleet growth provides an ideal window of opportunity for the shipping industry to enjoy good returns.
Happy New Year to all and let’s hope to mark 2018 in our happy memories!
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
...
Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers repo ...
Monday, 29 January 18
BALTIC INDEX GAINS ON STRONGER BIG VESSEL ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week and ending on a positive note week ov ...
Monday, 29 January 18
U.S.WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 8.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.6 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 24 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Since the beginning of the New Year we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards, which nonetheless seems to have no effect at ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
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