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Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
 Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018”
April 2017- “Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade”
July 2017 - “The pickup in global growth anticipated in the April World Economic Outlook remains on track...”
October 2017 - “The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise by 3.8 percent in 2018, compared to 3.7 percent in 2017 [emerging countries]”
So, what has happened in 2017 that has been the drive of the recovery? Is it sustainable? According to a special report by the Economist, in the first half of 2017 the volume of the emerging-market exports increased by 4.6% compared to a year earlier, the fastest growth since 2011; not only this, during the same period the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) all grew simultaneously for the first time in three years and for the first time since 2009, twenty one out of twenty four emerging countries have reported higher - than the previous quarter - quarterly GDP figures.
After exceeding expectations in 2017, the global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3% growth rate in 2018. China, the biggest contributor and the barometer of the shipping indexes, is expected to grow a bit slower compared to 2017, leaving India as the fastest-growing large economy contributing a growth of 7.8% in the world's GDP. The other countries of the area are also expected to hit growth in excess of 6%. The developed countries will also contribute since the momentum in mature economies increased during 2017 and it is expected to continue growing by a healthy 2.1% in 2018 - compared to the 1.8% 5-year average.
On the ship supply side, the dry bulk fleet (>20,000dwt) just exceeded ten thousand vessels (for the record, ten years ago the fleet was less than seven thousand ships); Whilst 430 vessels were delivered in 2017 the fleet increased by 226 vessels (2.3% fleet growth) as more than 200 bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2018 it is projected that the shipbuilders will deliver another four hundred forty vessels; so, if we can assume at least the same demolition activity with 2017 then the fleet growth will increase by about the same number of ships – less if you count slippage and non-reported cancellations. In absolute numbers the orderbook is also smaller compared to last year by about one hundred vessels. This means that despite all the 2017 placed orders, the orderbook was not replenished. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is also at low levels not seen for many years, 9% for Handysize up to Kamsarmax size and 10% for Capes. So, with sustainable global economic growth, this could mean good news for shipowners.
So, after disappointing global growth over the past few years, this recent pickup combined with the relatively subdued fleet growth provides an ideal window of opportunity for the shipping industry to enjoy good returns.
Happy New Year to all and let’s hope to mark 2018 in our happy memories!
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 December 17
COAL INDIA BOARD CLEARS THE WAY FOR SCHEME FOR HARNESSING AND ALLOCATING KOYALA (COAL) TRANSPARENTLY IN INDIA - PIB
The Coal India Limited (CIL) Board cleared the decks for signing of Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA), for supply of coal.
According to Press Inform ...
Friday, 22 December 17
WILL THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY BECOME PROFITABLE IN 2018? - PETER SAND, BIMCO
As the dry bulk fleet is already expected to grow at a pace that matches demand growth expected in 2019, focus must be on improving the fundamental ...
Friday, 22 December 17
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
COAL CONSUMPTION DROPS AS GAS AND RENEWABLES CHEW INTO TRADITIONAL MARKETS - BABS MCHUGH
"The share of coal in the global energy mix is forecast to decline from 27 per cent last year to 26 per cent in 2022"
Global demand ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
FUEL SHORTAGE TRIGGERS JUMP IN COAL PRICES - CHINA DAILY
China’s thermal coal prices jumped recently as natural gas shortages across the north spurred an unexpected resurgence in demand for coal-fir ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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