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Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
 Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018”
April 2017- “Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade”
July 2017 - “The pickup in global growth anticipated in the April World Economic Outlook remains on track...”
October 2017 - “The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise by 3.8 percent in 2018, compared to 3.7 percent in 2017 [emerging countries]”
So, what has happened in 2017 that has been the drive of the recovery? Is it sustainable? According to a special report by the Economist, in the first half of 2017 the volume of the emerging-market exports increased by 4.6% compared to a year earlier, the fastest growth since 2011; not only this, during the same period the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) all grew simultaneously for the first time in three years and for the first time since 2009, twenty one out of twenty four emerging countries have reported higher - than the previous quarter - quarterly GDP figures.
After exceeding expectations in 2017, the global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3% growth rate in 2018. China, the biggest contributor and the barometer of the shipping indexes, is expected to grow a bit slower compared to 2017, leaving India as the fastest-growing large economy contributing a growth of 7.8% in the world's GDP. The other countries of the area are also expected to hit growth in excess of 6%. The developed countries will also contribute since the momentum in mature economies increased during 2017 and it is expected to continue growing by a healthy 2.1% in 2018 - compared to the 1.8% 5-year average.
On the ship supply side, the dry bulk fleet (>20,000dwt) just exceeded ten thousand vessels (for the record, ten years ago the fleet was less than seven thousand ships); Whilst 430 vessels were delivered in 2017 the fleet increased by 226 vessels (2.3% fleet growth) as more than 200 bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2018 it is projected that the shipbuilders will deliver another four hundred forty vessels; so, if we can assume at least the same demolition activity with 2017 then the fleet growth will increase by about the same number of ships – less if you count slippage and non-reported cancellations. In absolute numbers the orderbook is also smaller compared to last year by about one hundred vessels. This means that despite all the 2017 placed orders, the orderbook was not replenished. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is also at low levels not seen for many years, 9% for Handysize up to Kamsarmax size and 10% for Capes. So, with sustainable global economic growth, this could mean good news for shipowners.
So, after disappointing global growth over the past few years, this recent pickup combined with the relatively subdued fleet growth provides an ideal window of opportunity for the shipping industry to enjoy good returns.
Happy New Year to all and let’s hope to mark 2018 in our happy memories!
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 January 18
OIL MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Brent oil futures hit a three year high on January 16th touching around USD 70.30 before falling back down to around USD 68.60 at the Time of this ...
Friday, 19 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS 13.5 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING JANUARY 13, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 18 January 18
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL RISES BY 1.5% IN 2017 - KOHLENIMPORTEURE
Press Release: World Trade in Hard Coal Rises by 1.5% in 2017. German Steam Coal Imports Plummet by 15% in 2017 – in Contrast to Other Sector ...
Wednesday, 17 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are now well into the first month of 2018, the mood across the entire offshore industry undeniably remains rather positive following the oil ...
Monday, 15 January 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO WEAK THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has stayed firm, week over week, ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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